The fundamentals of the media business are shifting beneath our feet: Streaming has displaced television. Social platforms have disaggregated content. And personalities have supplanted brands. In this brave new world, the old advertising models have given way to a more complex hierarchy of diversified revenue streams, where loyalty, attention, and product depth matter far more than undifferentiated scale. Even the industry’s most admired playbook—the New York Times bundle—looks more like a singular outlier than a road map.
To better understand the current state of the industry and where it is headed, we partnered with Orchestra—a strategic communications and marketing company designed for a complex, fragmented world—to survey Puck’s elite audience of media insiders, executives, and dealmakers about the health of the business, the future of A.I., the evolution of ESPN, the fate of The Washington Post, and much more.
The following includes responses from 173 media insiders, predominantly from the C-suites and executive ranks of the industry. Here are the trends that define where the media economy is headed next.
The Media Business
Respondents are unequivocal: The future belongs to audience revenue. A plurality (34 percent) expect subscriptions and memberships to be their biggest revenue stream in five years—eclipsing advertising (27 percent) and far outpacing events (18 percent) and licensing. The decades-long dominance of ad-supported journalism is fading; the businesses with the strongest audience relationships will win the next cycle.
Asked about subscription strategy, 43 percent say they’re leaning heavily into specialized verticals and superfans. Only 23 percent still believe in the flagship “one big product” model. Another 23 percent are going all in on bundling. And almost no one is retreating back to a primarily ad-supported model. When it comes to churn, leaders believe personalization, creator affinity, and product breadth matter far more than discounts or pricing games. Relevance is the new retention.
Subscriptions are the future
What will be the biggest revenue driver in five years?
For decades, publishers have relied on advertising revenue to stay afloat. But the playbook is changing, and that means finding new ways to support the bottom line.
Niche fandoms beat mass audiences
Where are you putting your faith in media?
Media leaders are steering their subscriptions toward specialized verticals rather than broad, general-interest audiences.
The advertising question produced one of the clearest signals in the entire survey: Forty percent say video/streaming is the biggest growth area in ads, dwarfing every other category. Contextual targeting comes second (31 percent), followed by branded content (22 percent). Podcasts barely register (7 percent), underscoring the monetization ceiling now evident in the space. The streaming scramble may be chaotic, but it’s still where the ad dollars are flowing.
Meanwhile, perhaps no question elicited more begrudging admiration: Sixty-four percent of respondents say the NYT-style bundle works for the Times but is not replicable at scale for other media companies. A quarter believe bundling might become dominant by 2030, but skepticism outweighs optimism. Very few foresee a return to pure à la carte—the bundle isn’t dying; it’s just not going to save everyone.
Advertising jet fuel
Which sector will provide the most growth potential in advertising?
As for the future of advertising specifically, a plurality of respondents see the most opportunity in video and streaming.
A Tech-Inflected Future
As for how technology will impact the media business, the results of our survey are clear: Evolve or else be left behind. Our audience sees a future defined by A.I. distortion, collapsing social platforms, and a media ecosystem that’s increasingly fragmented. The optimism that does exist is faint and heavily qualified. Still, beneath the anxiety lies a striking clarity about where things are headed: Quality will become scarcer and thus more valuable, and direct relationships will outperform intermediaries, even as consolidation accelerates. Here’s what respondents believe the future of media looks like…
When asked what concerns them most about A.I.’s impact on media, respondents overwhelmingly flagged diminished content quality (39 percent) and misinformation (33 percent). Job displacement was a secondary worry. And yet, when asked where A.I. will have the biggest impact by 2030, respondents were split between content production and personalization—two areas where efficiency and risk intersect. Despite the A.I. wave, they still believe loyalty is built on the old pillars: original reporting, talent, and credibility.
Does A.I. threaten quality more than jobs?
Top concern regarding A.I.'s impact on media
Owned channels reign supreme
Where do you expect to have the strongest relationship with your audience in five years?
Media insiders are turning to more trusted news sources over social platforms.
Meanwhile, our survey found that owned channels are more powerful than social platforms.
This was one of the most decisive findings in our survey: Only 7 percent of Puck’s elite media audience primarily get their news from Twitter, Threads, or Bluesky. (By comparison, more than 50 percent of U.S. adults “sometimes” or “often” get their news from social media, according to Pew.) Half of the respondents get their news directly from news sites, and a third from newsletters. And when asked who will have the strongest audience relationship in five years, 53 percent chose owned-and-operated platforms. The great experiment of relying on social platforms for growth is effectively over.
Asked to describe the future of media in five words or fewer, respondents channeled an almost gallows humor: “Is there a future?” “Contracting until it can’t anymore.” “Deck chairs on the Titanic.” “Behemoths, niche players, no middle.” And yet some remain stubbornly optimistic: “Authenticity matters.” “It’s going to be fine.” The tension between fatalism and resilience defines the industry mood.
Consolidation fears…
- Many respondents zeroed in on mergers and shrinking empires. “Consolidation and dumbing down,” wrote one, while another foresaw “further consolidation in a declining market.” “Rebundling begins,” one predicted. “Warner Bros is acquired,” another speculated.
- Politics and press freedom weighed heavily. “Fight for the First Amendment,” one warned. “Continued issues with the Trump administration,” wrote another. “A major publication will cave to Trump,” feared one respondent, while another countered that “bold independence in the face of government manipulation will be rewarded.”
...and A.I. anxieties
- A.I. was another source of tension and intrigue. “A.I. tools cut production costs by 25 percent,” claimed one, while another predicted that “A.I. experiments will flop and disintegrate into A.I. slop.” “A.I. will threaten [the media business],” said one respondent simply. Others were more hopeful: “A strong A.I.-driven media product will shake up incumbents,” imagined one optimist.
- Still, not everyone was resigned to collapse. “Local news sees an upswing,” one said hopefully. “Authenticity matters more than ever,” offered another. “We’ll get back to honest reporting,” predicted one respondent. Or, as one put it simply: “Nowhere to go but up.”
The future of media, in five words or fewer
The Fate of WBD, ESPN, and WaPo…
When asked about the major sagas dominating the media news cycle—David Ellison’s pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery, ESPN’s strategic shift to streaming, and The Washington Post’s long unraveling—respondents offered sharply conflicting interpretations of almost everything, reflecting an industry where no storyline has a clear consensus. The lone exception is the Post, where Puck’s media elite audience was nearly unanimous in its pessimism.
Asked about the logic behind David Ellison’s pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery, respondents offered no unified theory. A plurality, 45 percent, see the bid as a logical consolidation play in a sector that has spent the last decade overextended and overleveraged. Another 36 percent fear it’s a risky overreach that could easily backfire, either financially or strategically, given the company’s debt load and the uncertain economics of streaming. A smaller but notable 12 percent perceive the move as genuinely transformative, a bold attempt to reshape the studio landscape. And 8 percent dismiss the bid.
Ellison’s WBD gambit splits the industry
How do you feel about David Ellison’s plot to acquire Warner Bros.?
ESPN’s choose your own adventure
Sentiments around ESPN’s long-term strategy offer similar fragmentation: A third of respondents believe joint ventures will define ESPN’s next chapter, suggesting a world where the legacy sports network becomes a kind of multipartner distribution consortium. But 24 percent still think linear carriage remains the real profit engine, a bet that the old economics may erode slower than predicted. Another 24 percent argue the D.T.C. stream will eventually become a true flagship product, finally rivaling cable. And 20 percent envision ESPN merging with or spinning into a tech platform altogether.
And finally… The Washington Post is doomed?
Of the major storylines we tested, none elicited darker sentiment than the fate of The Washington Post under Jeff Bezos and Will Lewis. Nearly half of respondents—46 percent—believe Bezos will tolerate ongoing losses and let the asset drift, an indictment of both strategic direction and owner engagement. A quarter expect Bezos to fire Lewis, and 23 percent assume he will eventually sell the paper to someone else. Only 6 percent foresee a turnaround under Lewis’s leadership. From questions about M&A to A.I., this may be the only verdict that resembles consensus: Confidence in a Post revival is effectively nil.
The Fall of the House of Woodward
What will Bezos do with WaPo?
